Sombre Hong Kong Election Day

Do these ballot box mascots entice people to vote today?

Today over 4 million Hongkongers can vote in the Legislative Council elections. One would have to be living under a rock not to know this, as there have been posters all over the city featuring three cartoon ballot boxes, and if you happen to walk along the harbourfront in North Point, those ballot box mascots are in statue form, as if voting is a kids' exercise.

There are 161 candidates vying for 90 seats, and what's interesting about this year's election is 12 lawmakers have declined to run again because they are over the age of 70. They include big names like the convenor of the Executive Council, Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee, council president Andrew Leung Kwan-yuen, and Michael Tien Puk-sun.  

Tommy Cheung Yu-yan isn't running again for the Catering functional constituency -- perhaps there will finally be someone who will be more passionate about advocating for the restaurant industry that is being depleted because of people going to Shenzhen regularly.

With so many retiring, is there enough new blood to get people's vote? One candidate people are watching is Vivian Kong Man-wai, former gold Olympic fencer who is looking for a seat in the Tourism functional constituency (one of the 12 functional constituencies that allow those with foreign passports to run), even though she is renouncing her Canadian passport.

However, the bigger question is, how many people will show up to exercise their right to vote?

In the previous election four years ago, there was a record low turnout of 30.2 percent of the over 4 million eligible voters who cast their ballots, despite the government spending HK$1.28 billion on advertising an increase of 50 percent.

That's because this is the second "patriot-only" election after the electoral system was completely revamped where only pro-Beijing candidates are allowed to run; the vast majority of pro-democracy politicians were banned from even running.

After the Wang Fuk Court fire that erupted on November 26 and has sadly claimed 159 lives, many Hong Kong residents are probably not in the mood to vote, despite the government claiming the election must take place today.

Five days ago Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu said it was important to vote in new lawmakers to help launch reforms and to hold the government accountable with relief work following the devastating fire.

"The partners I need most importantly are lawmakers," Lee said on December 2. "To hold the election as scheduled is to respect the constitutional order and rule of law ... it is also to safeguard social stability as it serves as a strong support to the post-fire work."

Nevertheless, John P Burns, emeritus professor and Chinese politics expert at the University of Hong Kong expects voter turnout to be low, partly because of the Tai Po fire.

While those in the pro-establishment camp may be impressed by how quickly the authorities have re-housed victims and provided financial aid, Burns says others "may stay away from the polls" as they are "disappointed, even angry, by the governance problems the fire as exposed." 

In that vein it is possible the election results could be interpreted as a referendum on the government's handling of the Tai Po fire...