Landslide Change in Hungary

Magyar promises to undo Orban's changes in Hungary

Finally some good news -- there will be a change in government in Hungary following Viktor Orban's massive loss in elections today, ending 16 years of rule that led to extensive corruption, a stacked judiciary, and control over many media outlets.

What was a surprise was that Orban, 62, was quick to concede defeat, not waiting for the final results that later declared Peter Magyar, 45, the winner.

Orban quickly conceded defeat

"The responsibility and opportunity to govern were not given to us," Orban said, but he also made a vow: "We are not giving up. Never, never, never."

Over 79.5 percent of voters cast their ballots, and with 98 percent of the ballots counted, Magyar of the Tisza party won 138 seats, more than a two-thirds majority compared to Orban's Fidesz, that won 55.

Previously an Orban loyalist, Magyar promises to end corruption that lined the pockets of Orban allies, but he is also not very progressive when it comes to LGBTQ+ rights. 

Will Magyar restore the checks and balances that Orban dismantled during his 16-year rule? That will be the big question. He has promised to reverse Orban's changes to education and healthcare, restore independence of the judiciary, and end the squandering of tax dollars.

"You performed a miracle today, Hungary made history today," Magyar told a jubilant crowd.

Magyar will move Hungary away from Russia

Besides Orban, the other big losers are his supporters, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. The latter even sent Vice President JD Vance to Budapest to stump for Orban, but his appearance didn't move the needle at all.

The European Union is cautiously optimistic that things will change, along with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whose pleas for help were always stymied by Orban.

Nevertheless, we'll celebrate Magyar's win, who said that love triumphs, and that this is a sign of things to come.

VIFF Review: Caught by the Tides

China's fast progression to modernity is captured in this film

The last film I caught at the Vancouver International Film Festival was one from China called Caught by the Tides by Jia Zhangke. The screening I saw was in the afternoon on a weekday but there were a lot of people there, particularly mainlanders which made me wonder if they were skipping work or school to watch it.

For the first 30 minutes viewers are wondering what is going on. The film opens in the late 1990s with a scene of women bundled up in a bare room in Datong, Shanxi province singing songs on Women's Day -- China actually celebrates this day by giving women a half day off work. 

Qiaoqiao and Bin have a relationship in Datong

Then the scene suddenly jumps to a nightclub with young women wearing skimpy clothes dancing with men, and viewers are wondering who the main characters are and if this movie is going anywhere.

Finally it zeroes in on two people, Qiaoqiao, an attractive woman and a man named Guo Bin, but their relationship isn't clearly established at first. It is only when he sends her a text message on his phone (several years before smartphones came out) that he was going away and that he would come and get her later.

It is unclear how long she waits because soon after he's gone she has a backpack slung over her shoulder and takes a boat along the Yangzte River just before areas along it would be flooded because of the massive Three Gorges Dam.

Qiaoqiao wanders where buildings are being demolished, the bricks sorted by peasants to repurpose and used to build other constructions elsewhere, while families with their worldly possessions wait for the ferry to move them elsewhere and they proudly explain they are making this sacrifice for the good of the country.

Director Jia wanted to capture China's changes

Meanwhile Bin seems to be caught up in some corruption scandal involving real estate, but it seems karma has come back for him. Years later he seems to have had a stroke, his left hand immobile and he walks with a bit of a limp.

Caught by the Tides is about this couple, but more interesting is how China has changed around them in the years and decades. There are news reports of China entering the World Trade Organization, and later Beijing is chosen to host the 2008 Olympics.

The film finally catches up with them in 2022 during the Covid-19 pandemic, wearings masks, lining up for mandatory swab testing, and how people make money by making silly videos online. It's a far cry from the room full of women in the opening scene.

Except for the first 30 minutes of the film, Caught by the Tides is interesting to watch; however, there is only a tenuous link between Qiaoqiao and Bin, and so the film doesn't explain her motivation to deliberately go out of her way to find him.

Caught by the Tides

Directed by Jia Zhangke

111 mins

2024

VIFF Review: Democracy Noir

Orban's power has been unchecked for the past 14 years

If you want to study the disintegration of democracy in Europe, Hungary is the place to be.

Since 2010, Victor Orban and his political party Fidesz has been in power. In the 2018 election Fidesz won a two-third majority, giving it the mandate to change the constitution.

Led by Orban, Fidesz dismantled rule of law, took control of publicly-funded media, and forced workers to work overtime without extra pay.

Orban confronted by sharp whistling by Szabo

This is what Democracy Noir is about, exposing how Orban fundamentally changed Hungary and how three women are trying to push back.

The documentary is directed by Connie Field, an American who lives in Berkeley, California, but her husband is Hungarian.

After the screening she explained that she has been going to Hungary every year since 2010 and it was in 2014 that she started filming what was going on; she could not get interest in her project at the time so she kept filming and only now the film has been released.

Field follows three women trying to stop Orban in their own ways: Timea Szabo an opposition politician; Nikoletta Antal, a nurse and activist; and Babett Oroszi, a journalist.

Szabo speaks fluent English and explains a lot of what is going on in English, while the other two speak Hungarian. 

When I asked her why she chose three women in the film, instead of say a mix of men and women, Field didn't have an answer... she seemed to think it was not important. But in the film, the three are very fierce and determined. There is a scene where Orban announces families won't have to pay income tax forever if they have four children, which echoes what China is trying to do without success. 

Antal is a nurse who demonstrates regularly

But apparently this policy has resulted in people willing to have kids because the state will help them pay for them, and in this regard are Orban supporters.

Like Donald Trump, Orban creates enemies of the state, and it is the LGBTQ+ community, and falsely accusing politician Szabo of being a drug dealer, as she has worked in Afghanistan and at Harvard.

Oroszi explains the rampant corruption that is happening in Hungary. The European Union poured a lot of money into Hungary to bring it up to developed country standards. However, Orban didn't use the money to improve healthcare, education and so on, but instead spent it on pet projects like a big, shiny stadium next to his country home, a rundown cottage to show his humble roots.

The contractors chosen in the bids were friends of Orban's; the bricks or stones used to build these big construction projects came from the quarries owned by Orban's father. Orban's father is building a massive complex of his own, while nurse Antal says she spent some of her own money to buy medicine for her patients who couldn't afford it.

Field was at tonight's VIFF screening

The media is completely gutted so that the vast majority are controlled by the government and they all use the same wording in their reports, while alternative media like the one Oroszi works for are few and far between; she says it's like musical chairs working for these few places that are left.

While opposition politician Szabo does well in Budapest, her party is unable to get votes in the countryside; Field explains after the screening that Orban looked to the rural areas to get votes and tailored his platform to what they wanted to hear. Sound familiar with Trump?

She says in fact Project 2025 has ideas borrowed from Orban which makes Democracy Noir required viewing not only in the United States but around the world.

What happened in Hungary also mirrors what has happened in Hong Kong, though Field notes that Orban isn't like Putin who feels the need to jail and poison opposition; Orban is so comfortable in his power that he knows he will win regardless and so opposing voices don't bother him.

And like Hong Kong, a lot of young people have left Hungary to work elsewhere in western Europe. When it's voting day and they need to go to the Hungarian consulate to cast their ballot, strangely the consulate is closed...

Democracy Noir

Directed by Connie Field

90 minutes

Review: Red Roulette

A captivating book about the CCP today

The day before Red Roulette was supposed to hit bookstore shelves, the author Desmond Shum got a phone call from his ex-wife, who he hadn't heard from in four years.

In 2017 she was snatched from her office in Beijing and was never seen again. But in September 2021 he heard her voice on the other end of the line, begging him not to release the book he had written, a story about his humble beginnings over 50 years ago and how his career mirrored the rise of China.

It was his ex-wife, Whitney Duan Weihong who had taught him the ropes of how to do business in mainland China, and together they made multi-billion dollar deals that made them immensely wealthy.

Duan and Shum on their date before marrying

She was the one who cultivated their top-drawer contacts -- from local cadres rising up the ranks, to top senior officials in the Politburo. It really does sound like betting on horses and hoping that yours manages to cross the finish line without corruption charges in tow.

Shum was born in Shanghai, but as a child his parents sacrificed their relatively decent lifestyle to start all over in Hong Kong. He was frustrated at first, but his height and athleticism helped him become accepted in school, learning Cantonese and English, and later university in the United States.

After returning to Hong Kong, Shum managed to manoeuvre his way into China in the late 1990s and saw how anything was possible, but how?

Enter Duan, who would show him how it's done.

Red Roulette chronicles their rapid rise to the top where they flew private jets, bought expensive art work and had homes in various places. It's practically dizzying how Shum nonchalantly reels off how much they spent on wine and jewellery, but that it was the cost of doing business.

Wining and dining businessmen in Bordeaux 

Nevertheless, he reveals very interesting insider observations: Those headlines of officials charged with corruption or caught with lots of prostitutes are mostly false. Shum says they are concocted to justify taking these officials down, when in fact they led pretty clean lifestyles to climb up the political ladder.

Shum describes his relationships with a few of these officials who were later caught, and in the time that he knew them over several years, he claims they would not logistically even have time to cavort with hookers as they were tied up in meetings (with male officials) all day and night.

But he still does not know why Duan was taken and why she has never been formally charged. 

In media interviews, Shum has said that when she called him, he knew someone was next to her telling her what to say, and warning that someone was going to get hurt if the book was released.

He claims he wrote Red Roulette for his son Ariston, who is now 12 years old so that he will know what his parents had achieved and that Shum has no regrets.

Duan, Ariston and Shum in happier times

He also reveals his support for Hong Kong -- even attending the 2019 protests early on and voted in the last District Council election. But with the implementation of the national security law, which Shum says is heavy handed, he believes this is the end of Hong Kong as an international financial hub.

Before the book ends, Shum talks about Xi Jinping before and after he became the leader of China and makes some interesting personal observations about him.

A fascinating read that ties in various news stories that I have read over the years and interesting to see Shum's take as he knew many of these people personally.