More Babies Born in UK than HK

Fewer people having babies in Hong Kong these days

In another sign that Hongkongers are leaving the city in droves is the birth rate... which has increased in England and Wales. Almost 2,000 babies were born in these two places as opposed to the parents' hometown, due to migration using BNO pathways.

"When the young people left, they also took their fertility to other places," said Paul Yip Siu-fai, a population expert at the University of Hong Kong. "We are very likely to fall into a low-fertility trap and have little chance of escaping it."

The red line shows birth rate, black death rate

Britain's Office for National Statistics revealed the number of newborn babies with at least one parent from Hong Kong rose from 1,568 in 2019, to 1,602 in 2020, 1,665 in 2021 and 1,953 last year.

The figures were for England and Wales, while Scotland and Northern Ireland record their own statistics.

The BNO migration pathway came into effect after the national security law was implemented in 2020. Successful applicants and their dependants can live, work and study in the UK for up to five years, and then are eligible to apply for citizenship. 

Between January 2021 and June this year, 176,407 Hong Kong applications were approved, a 97 percent success rate.

Meanwhile in Hong Kong, the number of births plunged from 52,900 in 2019 to 43,000 in 2020, 37,000 in 2021, and only 32,500 last year, a decline of almost 40 percent over four years.

Yip urges govt to help families

In addition the total fertility rate, the number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime, also fell to 0.8, the lowest in the world. The rate should be 2.1 for a population to replace itself.

Yip says Hong Kong's falling birthrate is due to "a basket of reasons."

He urged the government to give baby bonuses and provide families with more childcare support, and emphasised the need to improve the education system.

This is not news... Yip has been sounding the alarm for years, while Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu says he is looking into it...

Fact of the Day: Hong Kong's Lowest in the World

Hong Kong doesn't offer enough incentives to have children

Hong Kong has a new reputation of having the lowest birthrate in the world.

This ranking is according to a report by the United Nation Population Fund that was released on April 19.

The Hong Kong government previously said the population dropped as students went overseas to study.

Hong Kong's birthrate continues to plunge

But now it can't hide the fact that there are very few babies being born in the city. Many young women have migrated elsewhere in light of the national security law and there are others who prefer to remain childless.

According to the Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong's fertility rate dropped from 1,080 in 2018 to 772 in 2021.

In the latest financial budget released in late February, Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po proposed increasing the the child allowance by HK$10,000 (US$1,275) to HK$130,000.

However, lawmakers to residents complained the amount was too little to cover the costs of raising a child in Hong Kong. Experts suggest giving financial aid is the best option -- provided the amount was enough.

"There is international evidence suggesting that financial incentives including tax incentives have a positive impact on fertility, and at least, may encourage couples to give birth earlier," said assistant professor Tan Poh Lin, who studies Singapore's low birth rate at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.

HK has a higher number of seniors than youth

However, Paul Yip Siu-fai, the chair professor in population health at the University of Hong Kong, said the government had yet to treat the low birth rate as "a matter of life and death" as the Singaporean government had.

"It will not work unless you invest a very large sum of money," he said.

Yip said the government should instead focus on improving people's quality of life to make them happier while improving work conditions for women.

Indeed. But will the government listen?

Hong Kong's Declining Workforce, Student Populations

Hong Kong doesn't have enough workers across all fields

In yet another sign that Hong Kong's population is decreasing, last year the city lost over 94,000 employees, the biggest drop in the working population since records began almost 40 years ago.

The downward trend has been happening since the 2019 protests and in the last four years some 220,500 workers have left Hong Kong. The drop has been exacerbated by baby boomers retiring at 60 or 65, and experts say the combination of these factors will continue for the next year or two.

Many workers left Hong Kong or retired

"Many of the people who were born in the 1960s, when Hong Kong was experiencing the post-war baby boom, have reached retirement age. Meanwhile, the city is also seeing many emigrate to other regions and countries," said Professor Paul Yip Siu-fai, associate dean of the University of Hong Kong's faculty of social sciences.

As a result there are 73,150 job vacancies in the private sector, a jump of 20 percent from last year.

The education industry is in dire need of people with 7,750 positions that need to be filled, followed by transport and logistics at 7,390 jobs. Human health services is third at 6,510 vacancies.

Hong Kong's official population figures show the population has dropped for a third consecutive year to 7,333,200, a 1 percent drop from 2021.

Schools with few students may need to close

And because of the falling population, at least two primary schools may close because they don't have the minimum of 16 students to stay open.

Pupils and teachers have been leaving Hong Kong during the school year, and that coupled with the declining birth rate has led to fewer Primary One classes. The actual number of Primary One classes won't be known until the school year starts.

However, it is worth considering that with the government's push to develop the Northern Metropolis, the area near the border with the mainland, there could be an increase in students there. The plan is to turn this area into a residential and tech hub with some 900,000 flats and up to 650,000 jobs.

"If we axe schools now, when the population of the district goes up again in the future, there will not be enough schools," says Chu Wai-lam, vice-chairman of the New Territories School Heads Association.

Hong Kong's Population Continues to Drop

Hongkongers will continue to leave in the next 2-3 years

Hong Kong's population continues to drop, as more than 113,000 people left the city in the past 12 months, a record 1.6 percent decrease in the population. It is the second straight annual decline in numbers.

The figure is from the Census and Statistics Department released on Thursday. Hong Kong's population fell to 7,291,600 from 7,413,100 from mid-2021. There were also 61,600 deaths and 35,100 births between mid-2021 and mid-2022, a decrease of 26,500 people.

The graph clearly illustrates the population plunge

Some of those deaths can be attributed to Covid-19 when a spate of elderly people passed away after contracting the virus in seniors' homes.

The decline to 7.29 million people was sharper than last year's 1.2 percent decrease.

Of course the Hong Kong government is trying to explain away the numbers, saying the drop in the population is due to people moving away for school and work, while strict quarantine measures have made it hard for people to come back or move there, and the birth rate has fallen further because of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The authorities don't want to own up to the reality of why people are leaving, as someone on Twitter put it succinctly: "If 'one country, two systems' in Hong Kong is such a success, there wouldn't be hoards of middle class in their 30s and 40s giving up what ought to be the start of the most economically lucrative stage of their lives to move to another place to start again or even semi-retire."

People in 30s and 40s leave HK to start over again

Professor Paul Yip Siu-fai, a population health expert at the University of Hong Kong, predicts the emigration wave will continue for at least the next two to three years, as many residents are looking for ways to leave.

"The pull and push factors are in one direction, which go against Hong Kong," he said.

He called on the government to address the housing shortage as well as concerns about the city's overall development.

"Some people do not understand the national security law, they are really worried. So the government should explain the law clearly to allay their concerns. This is very important," he said.

Alas will the government heed Yip's advice, when the NSL is deliberately vague to scare people?