Monday, August 15, 2022

China's Zero-Covid Price


Empty street in Sanya, Hainan after it was locked down

How much has Covid-19 and the zero-Covid policy damaged China's economy?

Home sales have plunged 28.6 percent, property investment 12.3 percent. 

Crude steel output is down 6.4 percent.

Meanwhile retail sales edged slightly at 2.7 percent, and industrial output at 3.8 percent.

Youth unemployment is at a record high
The worst number of all is youth unemployment jumping to a record 19.9 percent. That means one in every five young person is unemployed.

This is not what any government wants to see, let alone Beijing. There are fewer job prospects for young people because the economy is not moving, because of China's zero-Covid policy, which has resulted in erratic lockdowns.

Over 150,000 people were locked down in Sanya, Hainan, forced to stay in their hotel room for weeks, and being tested constantly. After seeing that, who would want to travel anywhere in China?

And then there was a viral video of people being locked up in an Ikea store in Shanghai because a close contact of an infected person was in there. People were at the exit pushing the door open while security guards on the other side were trying to keep it closed but to no avail -- they pushed their way through and hoofed it out of there. Who wants to go shopping anymore if they could be locked in a store at any time?

Scenes of people pushing their way out of Ikea
Covid-19 has also caused supply disruptions in China's construction industry, but mostly it's banking issues, with developers running out of cash and buyers are now squatting in half finished apartments with no running water and electricity.

Meanwhile everywhere else in the world, people are traveling freely -- Paris and London seem to be the most popular destinations this summer -- and people are out and about shopping and dining. The economy is hampered by retail and hospitality sectors being short staffed, but other than that, life is almost back to normal.

Why is this all happening? Because Beijing wants zero-Covid. It is desperate to show the world that its draconian measures are the way forward in defeating the virus.

Except China.

Most worrying is the almost 20 percent unemployment rate for young people.

Buyers squat in empty, half-finished flats 
They are going to put the blame squarely on Xi Jinping for them not being able to find jobs, and many of them need to work to support families, especially if their parents are retired. 

If Xi Dada wants to garner an image of a supportive and endearing father figure, then he needs to create a lot of jobs very fast to dispel resentment, or worse -- rebellion -- among the next generation.

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