China's Birthrate Continues to Fall

China's birthrate made a record 17 percent drop last year

China's birthrate has dropped for the fourth consecutive year, despite government efforts for couples to have more children.

Last year registered births fell to 7.92 million, down 17 percent from 9.54 million in 2024, the biggest drop since the establishment of the People's Republic of China in 1949.

Yi Fuxian, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison was quoted in The Guardian that births in 2025 were "roughly the same level as in 1738, when China's population was only about 150 million."

The government's incentives aren't enough

The falling birthrate is not news the authorities were hoping to hear after years of trying to encourage couples to have more kids.

One of its initiatives that begins this year is 90 billion yuan (US$12.9 billion) poured into the first nationwide childcare subsidy program for children under the age of three. There are also plans to expand national healthcare insurance to cover all childbirth-related expenses, including IVF treatment.

But when the economy is slowing down coupled with high unemployment -- particularly among fresh graduates, people don't feel it's the right time to have kids, who have also become a very expensive investment.

The average cost of raising a child in China until the age of 18 is 538,000 yuan -- more than 6.3 times as high as the country's GDP per capita, compared to 4.11 times in the United States, and 4.26 times in Japan, according to a Chinese population think tank.

It's also a big problem when companies frown on young women getting married and having children, overlook them for career advancement, and society still expects women to do the household chores.

Instead women are pushing back, choosing either to remain single and childless, despite calls from the government, including Xi Jinping, for Chinese people to "actively cultivate a new culture of marriage and childbearing and strengthen guidance on young people's view on marriage, childbirth and family."

The drumbeat has already begun, with women receiving calls from community workers asking about their plans to have children. But dangling 3,600 yuan ($500) a year for families with children under the age of three is hardly much of an incentive, particularly for those living in cities. 

So... perhaps a re-think on how women are treated before coming up with plans on bumping up birthrates?